Where Does Drake Go From Here?

Today’s episode memo is about Drake. Where does he go from here? I was joined by journalist and author, Sowmya Krishnamurthy. We discussed the impact of the Kendrick Lamar beef, what we would do if we advised him, and more. You can listen to the conversation here or read below for my thoughts on Drake.

One of my favorite classes in school was on crisis and turnaround management. If you were CEO of Johnson & Johnson in 1982, how would you handle the Tylenol crisis? If you were CEO of Coca-Cola in 1985, how would you navigate the New Coke blunder?

The stakes were high and their brand reputation was on the line.

If I taught that course today, I would ask the question of the moment. If you managed Drake, how would you navigate his career from here?

Comeback season

Thanks to our fragmented media environment, Drake will always have a group of people who stick with him. This isn’t a Ja Rule vs 50 Cent situation where gatekeepers like Hot 97 are kingmakers that shape mainstream perceptions. Today, every corner of the internet has its supporters, and Drake’s base is still larger than anyone else’s in hip-hop. His music still gets streams more than any other rapper (including Kendrick Lamar) and his tours sell the most tickets. Despite Drake’s reputation hit, his commercial foundation is there… for now.

Without a strong turnaround effort though, that foundation may slowly push Drake into legacy mode before he’s willing to go there.

Since “Not Like Us,” Drake has thrown a few things against the wall that haven’t stuck. His call for a “game 2” against Kendrick was squashed by k. dot’s “no round twos” statement in his Super Bowl halftime show announcement.

Drake also dropped 100 Gigs—a forgettable hard drive dump with hours of raw footage from his older albums, photos, and unpolished songs. It’s the type of content that might have landed Drake a $20 million Netflix documentary five years ago, when Drake’s approval was sky-high, and studios threw crazy money at artist-produced documentaries.

100 Gigs follows the media tactic to keep Drake in the news and divert attention from the elephant in the room. It hasn’t worked, but if that’s step one, then step two needs to be a new chapter.

The best music comebacks require some image reinvention. The artist’s public image often evolves into a more mature, sophisticated version of themselves.  New year, new me.

Mariah Carey bounced back from her early 2000s setbacks with The Emancipation of Mimi. Britney Spears’ comeback album was Circus. And after Jay Z’s elevator incident, he turned a new page with 4:44.

A similar effort from Drake would be wise, but it would also be a seismic shift. In the streaming era, Drake has perfected the art of “monetizable mid.” He consistently drops underwhelming projects that help him recoup his massive licensing deal with Universal Music Group. But the new music doesn’t live up to the music from his early years.

He’s like a venture capitalist who exceeded expectations on their first fund, which helped them raise a massive second fund. But now, they’re incentivized to deploy more capital into even more startups that they would otherwise overlook.

You can listen to the full episode here or keep reading.

Room for improvement

Despite the competing economics, it’s time for OVO to level up. There are plenty of new topics that a father approaching 40 years old can share with the world. A carefully constructed, 13-track album may not get as many streams as a bloated 23-track double album would, but less may be more. The streaming algorithms reward music with staying power.

It may also be time for Drake to repair some fractured relationships. It would send a signal that he’s gotten over petty drama and is onto their next one. Drake has a long list of people he has had issues with: Kendrick Lamar, Chris Brown, Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, A$AP Rocky, Kanye West, Mustard, Rihanna, Future, Common, Rick Ross, potentially Jay Z, and more. Some of those are relationships irreconcilable, but not all of them. New music could bring a few of them together.

When it’s time for Drake to release more “content,” he should sit down and do a real interview. Not with Lil Yachty. Not with Bobbi Althoff. Not with any fellow artists or influencers. He should talk to someone who can ask real questions, address his past in a fair way, and focus on personal growth.

Time is on Drake’s side. He can take a step back, reflect, and make moves when he’s ready (preferably sometime after the Super Bowl).

Pop culture loves a teardown, but it also loves a comeback. It’s Drake’s time to show how he handles adversity. He may never get back to 2013-era Drake, but there’s plenty of grey area between that and where he is right now.

These are just a few highlights. Listen to the rest of the episode for more on:

- why there haven’t been many hip-hop hits in 2024?
- the difference between LA and Hollywood
- why nothing was the same after Nothing Was The Same

You should also check out Sowmya’s book Fashion Killa, How Hip-Hop Revolutionized High Fashion.

Chartmetric Stat of the Week -  Sphere's jam bands

Several jam bands who have performed at The Sphere reach fans who don’t stream but show up for live shows. Phish has less than 500,000 Spotify monthly listeners, but they still sold out several shows at the Las Vegas venue. There are a few artists with 50 million followers on Spotify who may not be able to sell as many concert tickets as Phish and its cult followers. Wild!